Trump's Economic Promises: The Gap Between Populism and Reality

Donald Trump's upcoming State of the Union address will be a crucial indicator of his economic policy direction. His promises to alleviate the economic hardships of the middle and lower classes in an era of high inflation risk appearing as populist rhetoric without concrete implementation plans. According to FireMarkets’ analysis, Trump’s policies could create short-term market volatility, but whether they will contribute to long-term economic growth remains uncertain.

Trump's Economic Pledges: Increasing Uncertainty

According to MarketWatch, as of February 23, 2026, former President Donald Trump is expected to present specific policies for struggling Americans in his upcoming State of the Union address. However, his promises revealed so far tend to repeat his existing policy orientation – tax cuts and deregulation – without concrete implementation plans. This situation could increase uncertainty in the market and dampen investment sentiment.

Key Pledges and Analysis

• Tax Cuts: Former President Trump maintains his position that tax cuts will stimulate corporate investment and create jobs. However, considering the current US fiscal deficit, further tax cuts could worsen fiscal soundness.


• Deregulation: Former President Trump plans to reduce the burden on businesses and promote economic growth through deregulation. However, deregulation could have negative impacts on other aspects, such as environmental protection and the labor market.


• Trade Policy: Former President Trump has expressed his willingness to protect American industries through protectionist policies. However, protectionism could disrupt the international trade order and raise consumer prices.

Market Impact and Outlook

Former President Trump's economic pledges could cause short-term market volatility. Specifically, tax cuts and deregulation could positively impact the stock market, but an expanded fiscal deficit and intensified trade disputes could negatively affect the bond market and exchange rates. Whether they will contribute to long-term economic growth will depend on former President Trump’s policy execution capabilities and the international economic situation.