Trump's 'End to Iran War' Claim: Market Relief and Diminished Geopolitical Risk?

Former President Donald Trump's assertion that the war with Iran could end in two to three weeks has sparked a positive reaction in Asia-Pacific markets. This statement has fueled expectations of easing geopolitical tensions and contributed to improved investor sentiment. However, given the historical discrepancies between President Trump's predictions and actual outcomes, a cautious approach is warranted.

Trump's Statement and Market Reaction

On March 31st and April 1st, 2026, former President Donald Trump repeatedly asserted that the war with Iran could be ended within two to three weeks (Reuters, Cointelegraph). This statement immediately impacted Asia-Pacific markets. According to CNBC, the Kospi surged over 6%, creating a positive atmosphere across the market. This is interpreted as a result of improved investor sentiment due to expectations of easing geopolitical risks.

Geopolitical Risk and Investor Sentiment

Potential Impact of the Iran War

A war with Iran could exacerbate instability in the Middle East and severely disrupt global energy supply chains. It could also lead to a surge in international oil prices, disruption of trade routes, and a global economic recession. Therefore, President Trump's statement about ending the war provides the market with relief in that it can mitigate these negative scenarios.

Past Predictions vs. Reality

However, it is important not to overlook the significant discrepancies that have existed between President Trump's past statements and actual outcomes. For example, his past predictions regarding trade negotiations were often different from reality, which served to increase market volatility. Therefore, this statement should also be approached cautiously, and actual changes in the situation should be closely monitored.

Investment Strategy and Outlook

Short-Term Market Reaction

In the short term, the stock market may rise and the price of safe-haven assets such as gold may fall due to expectations of easing geopolitical risks. Oil prices are also likely to stabilize.

Long-Term Outlook

From a long-term perspective, changes in the relationship with Iran can have a sustained impact on the global economy. Therefore, investors should continuously monitor political developments and manage risk through diversification.